Israel’s recognition of Somaliland is not about emotion.
Ethiopia’s silence is not weakness.
Both are strategy.
In international politics, recognition is not a birth certificate.
It is a signal.
Israel’s move is about Red Sea security, trade routes, and long-term influence. Somaliland’s stability made it a useful partner. But recognition alone does not create a state.
Ethiopia understands this better than most.
Ethiopia will not rush to recognize Somaliland—not because it is afraid, but because it governs a region where balance matters more than applause. Public recognition would shake relations with Somalia, challenge African Union principles, and risk internal precedents. So Ethiopia chooses what it has always chosen: quiet benefit, public restraint.
Israel does not expect Ethiopia to follow loudly. What Israel values is access, predictability, and cooperation, not declarations.
History is clear: • Eritrea gained recognition through negotiation
- South Sudan gained it quickly—and paid the price
- Kosovo gained partial recognition—and remains frozen
Somaliland’s path will be slow. Symbolic gains first. Legal change last.
In diplomacy, those who move last often survive longest.
Recognition makes headlines.
Patience makes history.
The Horn of Africa is not entering chaos.
It is entering a long chess game—and the quiet players usually win.